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Treasury Yields Fall

Published April 3, 2026

Treasury yields fell at the beginning of the week as investors assessed the latest economic conditions. Yields declined at the end of the week as the latest employment reports showed the economy remained resilient despite uncertainties related to the conflict with Iran.

On Tuesday, the Conference Board reported that its consumer confidence index for March increased slightly to 91.8, up from 91.0 in February. This was above economists’ expected reading of 87.9. While the index rose, concerns about higher prices due to tariffs and oil prices have contributed to the consumer confidence index remaining at the lowest levels seen in a decade.

“Consumer confidence ticked up again in March, as a modest improvement in consumers’ views of current conditions outweighed a slight downshift in expectations for the future,” said chief economist at the Conference Board, Dana Peterson. “Three of five components of the Index firmed in March, and overall confidence improved modestly for a second month. Nonetheless, the Index has been on a general downward trend since 2021.”

The benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield opened the week of March 30 at 4.44% and traded as low as 4.26% on Wednesday. The 30-year Treasury bond opened the week at 4.97% and traded as low as 4.86% on Wednesday.

On Thursday, the U.S. Department of Labor reported that initial claims for unemployment decreased by 9,000 to 202,000 for the week ending March 28, lower than economists’ expectations of 212,000 claims. Continuing claims increased by 25,000 to 1.84 million. On Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released its monthly jobs report for March which indicated the unemployment rate was 4.3%, a decrease from 4.4% reported in February. The report also noted an increase of 178,000 jobs in March, above economists’ forecasts of 59,000.

"We expect weaker job growth and a higher unemployment rate for 2026 than we had been forecasting prior to the war," said lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, Nancy Vanden Houten. "But the war's impact on the labor market will take a bit more time to materialize."

The 10-year Treasury note yield finished the week of 3/30 at 4.32% while the 30-year Treasury note yield finished the week at 4.92%.